Thursday, November 5, 2009

Phone subscriber base crosses 500-m mark

Growing numbers: India is the second country after China to reach this milestone
The number of telephone subscribers in India has increased to 509.03 million at the end of September with nearly 15 million subscribers being added in the month. This beats the Government’s target of 500 million users by 2010-end.

Tele-density
India is the second country after China to reach this milestone.

With this, the overall tele-density in the country has reached 43.50 . Wireless subscriber base increased from 456.74 million in August to 471.73 million at the end of September, a growth of 3.28 per cent.

Mobile operators offering per second billing has contributed to the surge in subscriber numbers. Wireless tele-density stands at 40.31. Wireline subscriber base declined from 37.33 million in August to 37.31 million in September.

This is mainly on account of reduction in the subscriber base of BSNL/MTNL, which lost 0.06 million in September. The two PSU operators hold 85.67 per cent of the wireline market share. The overall wireline tele-density is 3.19.

Broadband subscription
The total broadband subscriber base has increased from 6.98 million in August to 7.22 million in September, thereby showing a growth of 3.29 per cent.

Broadband subscription is expected to get a boost once the Government auctions spectrum for 3G and broadband wireless access services early next year.

Courtesy: The BusinessLine

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Nifty hits 4700; RIL, Infy, ICICI Bk, DLF, Sterlite up 5-7%

At 14:24 hours IST, the Nifty was trading strong and touched the 4700 mark on the back of institutional buying in heavyweights like Reliance Industries, Infosys, ICICI Bank, DLF, TCS and Sterlite Industries, which rose 5.2%, 5%, 5.42%, 7%, 3.3% and 5.4%, respectively.

All the sectoral indices were in the green. The BSE Realty Index shot up 7%. IT and Metal indices gained 4% each. Oil & Gas, TECk, Auto, Bank and FMCG indices were up 2-3.3%. Healthcare and Power indices gained over 1%.

The benchmark indices were outperforming the broader indices; the Sensex was trading at 15,880, up 475 points and the Nifty was at 4,700, up 137 points. The BSE Midcap Index rose 2.5% and Smallcap Index up 1.5%.

The market breadth was positive; about 1,727 shares advanced while 1,228 shares declined on the BSE. Nearly 808 shares were unchanged.

On the global front, European markets were up 0.7-1.1%. US index futures rose 0.3-0.5%

In the largecaps, Jaiprakash Associates, Hindalco and Unitech gained 7-8%. However, Suzlon Energy tanked 5.58%. ABB, Sun Pharma, Reliance Communication and Grasim fell 0.6-1.6%.

In the midcap space, Indiabulls Real and Educomp Solutions were up 11-13%. LIC Housing Finance, Anant Raj Industries and Dish TV India went up 7.6-8%. However, Andrew Yule, KGN Industries, Ipca Labs, REI Six Ten and Blue Dart slipped 2-4%.

In the smallcap space, Entertainment Network India, Tata Coffee, Glodyne Techno, Sanwaria Agro and Sasken Communication gained 9.5-10%. Webel SL Energy, Shree Ram Urban, Prime Securities, Garden Silk Mills and Disa India lost 7-10%.

Continued on the next page.. _PAGEBREAK_
Sensex recovers most of Tuesday's losses; heavyweights lead

AT 13:16 hours IST - consistent buying in heavyweights like technology, realty, FMCG, oil & gas exploration, private banking and metal stocks helped the Sensex to extend gains and recovered more than 4/5th of Tuesday's losses. The Nifty held above the 4650 level.

Heavyweights like Reliance Industries, Infosys, ICICI Bank and DLF gained 4-6%. Jaiprakash Associates, Unitech, Hindalco, Ranbaxy Labs, Tata Steel and Sterlite Industries were up 4-7%.

The Sensex was trading at 15,781, up 376 points and the Nifty was at 4,669, up 105 points. The benchmark indices were underperforming the broader indices, which were up just 1-2%. Advances were outnumbering declines; about 1,633 shares advanced while 1,313 shares declined on the NSE. Nearly 817 shares were unchanged.

However, in the largecaps, Suzlon Energy tumbled 4.38%. Tata Power, Idea Cellular, Reliance Communication, Sun Pharma, BHEL, Grasim and Sun Pharma declined 0.5-1.5%.

On the global front, Asian markets moved up further. Hang Seng, Kospi and Taiwan Weighted were up 2% each. Jakarta rose 1% and Straits Times gained 0.9%. Shanghai and Nikkei were up over 0.4%.

Nifty hovers around 4650; RIL, Infy, ICICI Bank, DLF up 4%

At 12:09 hours IST, the Nifty was strong in trade on the back of buying in heavyweights like Reliance Industries, Infosys and ICICI Bank, which gained over 4%. It tested the 4650 level while the Sensex was trading above the 15,700 level. On the sectoral front, technology, banking & financial, FMCG, realty, select metal, cement and auto stocks were seeing buying interest.

On the global front, Asian markets remained supportive. Kospi and Taiwan Weighted went up nearly 2% each. Hang Seng gained 1.6%. Straits Times and Jakarta were up close to 1%. Nikkei and Shanghai went up 0.2-0.4%.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 329 points to 15,734 and the 50-share NSE Nifty gained 92 points at 4,655. The market breadth was positive; about 1,621 shares advanced while 1,302 shares declined on the BSE. Nearly 840 shares were unchanged. The broader indices were up 1-2%.

However, Daryl Guppy, Founder & Director of guppytraders.com said the markets were likely to fall about 12-15%. "We are looking for a pullback to around 4,270 on the Nifty; we are testing 4,600 at the moment, a fall below that gives 4,270 as a downside target." In terms of Sensex - "The critical support is actually at 14,500, there is a minor support at 15,000 but that’s relatively minor its not particularly strong."

The BSE Realty index rose 5.5%, as DLF gained 5% and Unitech shot up over 6%.

Infosys surged over 4%. TCS, Wipro and HCL Tech were up 2-2.7%. The BSE IT Index jumped 3.4%.

However, in the largecaps, Tata Power lost 2.29% and Suzlon Energy slipped 3.8%. Grasim, Sun Pharma, BHEL, SBI, Idea Cellular and ABB lost 0.5-1.6%.

In the midcap space, Indiabulls Real, Torrent Power, Amtek Auto, Dish TV India and Anant Raj Industries gained 6-10.5% while REI Six Ten, KGN Industries, Andrew Yule, Motilal Oswal and Spice Communication fell 2-4.5%.

In the smallcap space, Genus Power, Agro Tech Foods, Subhash Project, aurionPro Solutions and SREI Infra went up 9-12% while Webel SL Energy, Shree Ram Urban, Disa India, Prime Securities and Garden Silk Mills lost 6-10%.

Sensex strengthens further; realty, tech, FMCG, banks gain

At 10:58 hours IST, the Sensex strengthened further. Positive Asian markets were supportive while buying in technology, banking, realty, FMCG, oil & gas exploration, cement and select auto stocks was helping as well. The Nifty has tested the 4650 level as well.

Among the Asian markets, Hang Seng, Kospi and Taiwan Weighted gained 1.3-1.7%. Shanghai, Jakarta and Straits Times went up 0.7% each. Nikkei was marginally in the green.

The Sensex rose 287 points to 15,692 and the Nifty gained 82 points at 4,646. Among the broader indices, the BSE Midcap Index rose 1.6% and the Smallcap Index up 0.7%, as about 750 shares advanced while 429 shares declined on the NSE.

All the sectoral indices were in the green barring power. The BSE Realty Index was the major loser in the last six days, which shot up 4.8%. IT, Oil & Gas, TECk and Bank indices moved up 2-3%.

Technology stocks like Infosys, HCL Tech, TCS and Wipro were up 2.4-3.9%.

In the banking space, ICICI Bank shot up 4%. PNB, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra, SBI and HDFC Bank gained 0.9-2.4%.

Realty stocks like Indiabulls Real surged 9%. Unitech and DLF went up 4% each.

In the FMCG pack, ITC, HUL, United Spirits, Tata Tea, Marico and Dabur India were up 0.9-2.5%.

Auto stocks like Bharat Forge, Ashok Leyland, Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, M&M and Hero Honda gained 0.7-2%.

In the midcap space, Indiabulls Real, Amtek Auto, United Breweries, HDIL and Torrent Power surged 5.5-7.5% while KGN Industries, Hindustan Oil Exploration, Andrew Yule, Maharashtra Seamless and Spice Communication fell 2.5-4.5%.

In the smallcap space, Agro Tech Foods, SREI Infra, Indiabulls Securities, Bliss GVS and Bilcare went up 6-8% while Shree Ram Urban, Webel SL Energy, Prime Securities, Gayatri Project and Panacea Biotec declined 5-10%.

Nifty bounces back; RIL, Bharti, ICICI Bank, Infy, TCS lead

The Sensex bounced back after six days of losses on the back of positive Asian cues. Buying was seen in high beta stocks. Telecom, realty, banking, select metal and technology stocks were the gainers in the early trade. The Nifty clawed back above the 4,600 mark.

At 9:56 am, the Sensex rose 169 points to 15,574 and the Nifty went up 51 points ot 4,614. The CNX Midcap gained 105 points at 6,490. The market breadth was positive; about 666 shares advanced while 148 shares declined on the NSE.

Among the frontliners, Hindalco, Unitech, Suzlon Energy, Jaiprakash Associates, Sterlite, DLF, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, IDFC, Reliance Industries, M&M, Bharti Airtel, Idea, Reliance Communications, HCL Technologies and Infosys were the gainers.

However, selling in Hero Honda, ABB (on disappointing quarterly numbers), Tata Power, ITC, HUL, GAIL and Siemens capped the gains to some extent.

Midcap space:

Bombay Rayon Fashions gained 4%. Mahindra Satyam shot up 5% as the company signed $400 million outsourcing deal with SAAB.

Indiabulls group stocks bounced back after sharp sell-off. Indiabulls Securities and Indiabulls Real were up over 6-7.5%. Indiabulls Financial gained 4%.

Educomp Solutions was up 4%.

Balrampur Chini was up 3% and Bajaj Hindusthan gained 6% as UP government temporarily banned import of raw sugar, reports CNBC-TV18 quoting agencies.

Global cues:

Asian markets were trading higher. Hang Seng rose 1.77% and Taiwan Weighted gained 1.6%. Shanghai, Straits Times, Kospi and Jakarta went up 0.6-0.8%. Nikkei was flat. SGX Nifty rose over 1%.

The US markets recovered from the day's low to end flat. Commodities gained as USD pared its early gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 17.5 points at 9,772, after seeing recovery of 68 points from day’s low of 9,704.

The Nasdaq Composite ended up 8 points at 2,057, after seeing recovery of 26 points from day’s low of 2,031. The S&P 500 Index ended up 2.5 points at 1,045, after seeing recovery of 10 points from day’s low of 1,035.

Commodities:

The Reuters CRB Index was up 1%.

Crude oil gained 2% to $79.6/bbl.

Gold was up 3% at $1084.5/ounce, hit all-time high at $1088.5/ounce.

Copper lost 1.5% to $6460/tonne.

Market cues:

-FIIs net buy USD 157 million in cash on October 30
-FIIs net buy Rs 114.8 crore in cash on October 30
-Total F&O Open Int up by Rs 2,950 crore at Rs 84,576 crore
-FIIs net sell Rs 874 crore in Cash on November 3
-DIIs net buy Rs 752 crore in Cash on November 3
-FIIs net sell Rs 567 crore in F&O on November 3

F&O cues:

-Total Futures Open Int down by Rs 743 crore
-Total Options Open Int up by Rs 3693 crore
-Nifty down 3.1%, Futures Open Int up 8% (Huge short buildup in last 1 hour)
-Nifty Nov futures trading at a 5 pt discount
-Nifty PCR ratio down from 1.13 to 1.03
-Nifty IVs at 29-30% versus 25-27%
-Nifty Calls add 53.8 lakh shares in Open Int, Nifty Puts add 18.4 lakh shares in Open Int
-Nifty 4700 Call Adds 20.8 lakh shares in Open Int
-Nifty 4600 Call Adds 16.1 lakh shares in Open Int
-Nifty 4500 Put Adds 6.4 lakh shares in Open Int
-Nifty 4500 Call Adds 6.2 lakh shares in Open Int
-Nifty 4800 Put Sheds 4.4 lakh shares in Open Int
-Stock futures shed 2.9 cr shares in Open Int (Have shed 5.8 crore shares in 2 days)

Nifty bounces back above 4600; RIL, Bharti, ICICI Bank lead

The Sensex bounced back after six days of losses on the back of positive Asian cues. Buying was seen in high beta stocks. Telecom, realty, banking, select metal and technology stocks were the gainers in the early trade. The Nifty clawed back above the 4,600 mark.

At 9:56 am, the Sensex rose 169 points to 15,574 and the Nifty went up 51 points ot 4,614. The CNX Midcap gained 105 points at 6,490. The market breadth was positive; about 666 shares advanced while 148 shares declined on the NSE.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Nifty freefalls, closes below 4600 | Realty, Metals dip 6 to 9%

The Nifty has seen sharp sell-off today and inched back towards the 4500 level for the first time since August 2009. It has fallen for sixth consecutive day on heavy volumes and closes below psychological - 4,600 mark for the first time since August 21, 2009. Huge shorts build up and weak global cues hammered the equity benchmarks. High beta stocks have beaten down badly.

Selling was seen across all the sectors. The BSE Realty Index crashed 9.7%. Metal, oil & gas, power, technology and capital goods stocks also cracked, respective indices fell 3-6%

Monday, November 2, 2009

Gold futures to correct lower

Comex gold futures ended lower due to an equity sell-off which triggered worries about a nascent recovery in the economic conditions. Gold prices posted their first weekly losses since the week of September 25, following four consecutive weeks of gains. The dollar rose on safe-haven buying after steep losses in the earlier sessions.

The gold trade is getting worried on developments about minor sale of Russian gold. The market also saw a series of higher gold production figures from some key miners earlier, but that news does not appear to be applying distinct pressure to gold prices. Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, slipped 0.3 per cent this week as the dollar rebounded from a 14-month low against the euro.


Comex gold futures fell lower against our expectations. Corrective declines are expected towards $1,025-27, followed by a crucial support at $1,009-1,011, also being a rising trend line support point. In the near-term while below $1,055 we can expect prices to edge lower towards the support levels mentioned above. As we have been maintaining a bullish view for some time based on the big picture charts, we believe the bullishness to extend with some deeper corrections. As long as the crucial support at $1,009-1,011 remains intact, we feel gold futures could again inch higher towards $1085 or even higher towards $1,100.

Unexpected fall below $1007 could dent our bullish expectations.

Such a fall could take it lower towards $980 or even lower towards $928. Elliot wave analysis indicates a possible fifth wave move in progress. This has been confirmed above $978. A potential fifth wave target lies at $1,100. RSI is in the neutral zone now indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold. The averages in MACD are still above the zero line of the indicator indicating the bullish trend to be intact. Therefore, look for gold futures to correct lower initially and then rise higher again.

Supports are at $1025, $1,011 & $982. Resistances are at $1,055, $1,072 & $1,085.

Gnanasekaar T.

(The author is the Director of Commtrendz Research and also in the advisory panel of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX). The views expressed in this column are his own and not that of MCX. This analysis is based on the historical price movements and there is risk of loss in trading. He can be reached at gnanasekar_thiagarajan@yahoo.com.)

Correction mode likely to stay

Investors would look for opportunities to move into better performers.

The market went into a correction mode last week after indicating in the second half of October that it might make such a move. This week too, Dalal Street may witness a downward trend. Some observers said the Sensex may plunge to 14,000 level in the short-term.A marked increase in profit booking by a section of FIIs has changed the ball game, according to investment advisors to overseas funds.

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